The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

From 2013 to 2017, more than one thousand avian influenza A (H7N9) confirmed cases with hundreds of deaths were reported in mainland China. To identify priorities for epidemic prevention and control, a risk assessing framework for subnational variations is needed to define the epidemic potential of A (H7N9).

Methods

We established a consolidated two-stage framework that outlined the potential epidemic of H7N9 in humans: The Stage 1, index-case potential, used a Boosted Regression Trees model to assess population at risk due to spillover from poultry; the Stage 2, epidemic potential, synthesized the variables upon a framework of the Index for Risk Management to measure epidemic potential based on the probability of hazards and exposure, the vulnerability and coping

SUBMITTER: Shan X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6474630 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature