Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).

ABSTRACT: A published study used a stochastic branching process to derive equations for the mean and variance of the probability of, and time to, extinction in population of tsetse flies (Glossina spp) as a function of adult and pupal mortality, and the probabilities that a female is inseminated by a fertile male. The original derivation was partially heuristic and provided no proofs for inductive results. We provide these proofs, together with a more compact way of reaching the same results. We also show that, while the published equations hold good for the case where tsetse produce male and female offspring in equal proportion, a different solution is required for the more general case where the probability (β) that an offspring is female lies anywhere in the interval (0, 1). We confirm previous r

SUBMITTER: Kajunguri D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6474634 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature