A Computational Model for Assessing the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Claim on an Existing Smokeless Tobacco Product.

ABSTRACT: Computational models are valuable tools for predicting the population effects prior to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorization of a modified risk claim on a tobacco product. We have developed and validated a population model using best modeling practices. Our model consists of a Markov compartmental model based on cohorts starting at a defined age and followed up to a specific age accounting for 29 tobacco-use states based on a cohort members transition pathway. The Markov model is coupled with statistical mortality models and excess relative risk ratio estimates to determine survival probabilities from use of smokeless tobacco. Our model estimates the difference in premature deaths prevented by comparing Base Case ("world-as-is") and Modified Case (the most likely outcome given t

SUBMITTER: Muhammad-Kah RS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6479389 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature