Mortality associated with alternative primary healthcare policies: a nationwide microsimulation modelling study in Brazil.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Brazil's Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) is one of the largest and most robustly evaluated primary healthcare programmes of the world, but it could be affected by fiscal austerity measures and by the possible end of the Mais Médicos programme (MMP)-a major intervention to increase primary care doctors in underserved areas. We forecast the impact of alternative scenarios of ESF coverage changes on under-70 mortality from ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) until 2030, the date for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Method

A synthetic cohort of 5507 Brazilian municipalities was created for the period 2017-2030. A municipal-level microsimulation model was developed and validated using longitudinal data and estimates from a previous re

SUBMITTER: Rasella D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6485171 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature