Development and validation of a risk prediction score for severe acute pancreatitis.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The available prognostic scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have limitations that restrict their clinical value. The aim of this study was to develop a simple model (score) that could rapidly identify those at risk for SAP.

Methods

We derived a risk model using a retrospective cohort of 700 patients by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to create risk categories. The model was internally validated by a tenfold cross-validation and externally validated in a separate prospective cohort of 194 patients.

Results

The incidence of SAP

SUBMITTER: Hong W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6505180 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature