Expert predictions of changes in vegetation condition reveal perceived risks in biodiversity offsetting.

ABSTRACT: Biodiversity offsetting typically involves the trade of certain losses of habitat with uncertain future conservation benefits. Predicting the latter requires estimates of two outcomes; the biodiversity losses without conservation management (averted loss), and the biodiversity gains with conservation management (management gain). However, because empirical data to inform these estimates are limited, they are normally guided by expert opinion, often derived via unstructured methods without consideration of uncertainty. Here we used a structured elicitation with 29 experts to gather estimates of averted loss and management gain at offset sites. We used two methods; (i) experts estimated change in an aggregate biodiversity value (vegetation condition) and; (ii) experts provided probabilistic

SUBMITTER: Dorrough J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6505952 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature