Prevalence estimation when disease status is verified only among test positives: Applications in HIV screening programs.

ABSTRACT: The first goal of the United Nations' 90-90-90 HIV/AIDS elimination strategy is to ensure that, by 2020, 90% of HIV-positive people know their HIV status. Estimating the prevalence of HIV among people eligible for screening allows assessment of the number of additional cases that might be diagnosed through continued screening efforts in this group. Here, we present methods for estimating prevalence when HIV status is verified by a gold standard only among those who test positive on an initial, imperfect screening test with known sensitivity and specificity. We develop maximum likelihood estimators and asymptotic confidence intervals for use in 2 scenarios: when the total number of test negatives is known (Scenario 1) and unknown (Scenario 2). We derive Bayesian prevalence estimators to acc

SUBMITTER: G Thomas E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6512805 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature