Assessing the relationship between epidemic growth scaling and epidemic size: The 2014-16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

ABSTRACT: We assess the relationship between epidemic size and the scaling of epidemic growth of Ebola epidemics at the level of administrative areas during the 2014-16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. For this purpose, we quantify growth scaling parameters from the ascending phase of Ebola outbreaks comprising at least 7 weeks of epidemic growth. We then study how these parameters are associated with observed epidemic sizes. For validation purposes, we also analyse two historic Ebola outbreaks. We find a high monotonic association between the scaling of epidemic growth parameter and the observed epidemic size. For example, scaling of growth parameters around 0.3-0.4, 0.4-0.6 and 0.6 are associated with epidemic sizes on the order of 350-460, 460-840 and 840-2500 cases, respectively. These results are

SUBMITTER: Ganyani T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6518536 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature