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Development of a New Nomogram Including Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

ABSTRACT: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has recently been reported to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We explored whether NLR predicted the survival of patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), and developed a predictive model. In total, 1697 patients with HCC undergoing TACE as first-line therapy at two university hospitals were enrolled (derivation set n = 921, internal validation set n = 395, external validation set n = 381). The tumor size, tumor number, AFP level, vascular invasion, Child-Pugh score, objective response after TACE, and NLR, selected as predictors of overall survival (OS) via multivariate Cox's regression model, were incorporated into a 14-point risk prediction model (SNAVCORN score). The time-dependent areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for OS at 1, 3, and 5 years predicted by the SNAVCORN score were 0.812, 0.734, and 0.700 in the derivation set. Patients were stratified into three risk groups by SNAVCORN score (low, 0-4; intermediate, 5-9; high, 10-14). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (HR 3.10, p < 0.001) and high-risk (HR 7.37, p < 0.001) groups exhibited significantly greater mortality. The prognostic performance of the SNAVCORN score including NLR in patients with HCC treated with TACE was remarkable, much better than those of the conventional scores. The SNAVCORN score will guide future HCC treatment decisions.

SUBMITTER: Chon YE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6520830 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a New Nomogram Including Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

Chon Young Eun YE Park Hana H Hyun Hye Kyung HK Ha Yeonjung Y Kim Mi Na MN Kim Beom Kyung BK Lee Joo Ho JH Kim Seung Up SU Kim Do Young DY Ahn Sang Hoon SH Hwang Seong Gyu SG Han Kwang-Hyub KH Rim Kyu Sung KS Park Jun Yong JY

Cancers 20190410 4

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has recently been reported to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We explored whether NLR predicted the survival of patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), and developed a predictive model. In total, 1697 patients with HCC undergoing TACE as first-line therapy at two university hospitals were enrolled (derivation set n = 921, internal validation set n = 395, external validation set n = 381). The tumor size ...[more]

PMID: 30974843

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Project description:Purpose:To examine the effect of dynamic changes in neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on tumor response and overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Patients and Methods:Data from 181 patients with HCC were retrospectively collected. White blood cell, neutrophil and lymphocyte counts, and the NLR were obtained 1-3 days before as well as 3-6 weeks and 3 months after TACE. Patients were divided into two groups at each time point according to the mean value of NLR, and also divided into continuous decrease, fluctuating increase-decrease (I-D), fluctuating decrease-increase (D-I), and continuous increase groups according to the dynamic changes in the NLR. The dynamic changes in blood counts and NLR were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA. The odds ratios (ORs) for tumor response in different NLR groups were examined using a multivariate logistic regression model. Finally, the prognostic value of the dynamic changes in the NLR was examined using Cox regression models. Results:Continuous decline of white blood cell counts, neutrophil counts and lymphocyte counts were observed at 3-6 weeks and 3 months after TACE treatment. The NLR increased slightly and then decreased substantially in responders, while it increased slightly and then significantly in non-responders, with a significant interaction effect of Time × T?umor response (P = 0.005). NLR grouping before TACE, 3-6 weeks and 3 months after TACE was not associated with tumor response, and only 3 months after TACE did, it shows a significant difference in univariate survival analyse?s (NLR > 2.5 vs NLR ? 2.5, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.442, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.545, 3.860). The changes in the NLR were significantly correlated with tumor response and OS. Non-responders for TACE were more common in the continuous NLR increase group (?OR = 6.230, 95% CI: 1.848-21.001) and in the fluctuating D-I group (OR = 5.702, 95% CI: 1.480-21.957). Multivariate analyses revealed that these two patient groups also showed poorer OS (HR = 2.351, 95% CI: 1.120-4.605 and HR = 2.320, 95% CI: 1.187-4.533, respectively). Conclusion:Dynamic changes in the NLR may be better predictors of tumor response and OS than static NLR values, but more data ?are needed.

Project description:PurposeThe purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive capability of neutrophil-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio (NAR) for predicting overall survival (OS) among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).Patients and methodsWe investigated the clinical features of 554 patients with HCC receiving TACE and assessed NAR's predictive value for OS with 222 patients (the discovery cohort) and 332 patients (the validation cohort). The association of NAR with circulation lectin-type oxidized low-density lipoprotein receptor-1-positive (LOX-1+ ) polymorphonuclear myeloid-derived suppressor cells (PMN-MDSCs) was illustrated.ResultsMultivariate Cox regression revealed that lymphocyte count; Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) stage; and NAR were independent prognostic factors in the discovery cohort. The validation cohort confirmed the independent prognostic value of TNM stage and NAR. Patients with low NAR (<2.7) displayed significantly increased OS in the discovery cohort (59.8 months vs. 21 months), the validation group (38.0 months vs. 23.6 months), and the total cohort (44.1 months vs. 22.0 months). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to combine Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score with discretized NAR. C-index illustrated that NAR-integrated CLIP score was the best model compared with NAR and CLIP score. Furthermore, NAR-CLIP presented superior predictive capacity for 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-, 50-, and 60-month survival compared with CLIP score by survival receiver-operator characteristic analysis in the discovery cohort, validation cohort, and total cohort. NAR was significantly associated with LOX-1+ PMN-MDSCs by linear regression.ConclusionThis study identified NAR as an independent predictor for OS among patients with HCC receiving TACE. NAR reflected circulation LOX-1+ PMN-MDSC level.Implications for practiceThe present study identified neutrophil-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio (NAR) as an independent predictor for overall survival among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma receiving transarterial chemoembolization. NAR reflected circulation level of lectin-type oxidized low-density lipoprotein receptor-1-positive polymorphonuclear myeloid-derived suppressor cells.

Dataset Information

Development of a New Nomogram Including Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

Publications

Development of a New Nomogram Including Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

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