Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Emerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil's integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), reporting rates and ART initiation rates. An age-structured deterministic model with a flexible spline was used to describe the natural history of HIV along with reporting and treatment rates. Individual-level surveillance data for 1,077,295 cases (HIV/AIDS diagnoses, ART dispensations, CD4 counts and HIV/AIDS-related deaths) were used to calibrate the model using Bayesian inference. The results showed a second wave of infections occurring after 2001 and 56,000 (95% Credible Inte

SUBMITTER: Mangal TD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6543066 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature