Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information.

ABSTRACT: Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure-most of which are highly uncertain-t

SUBMITTER: Shepherd TG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6545051 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature