Adequacy of SEIR models when epidemics have spatial structure: Ebola in Sierra Leone.

ABSTRACT: Dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) compartmental models provide a tool for predicting the size and duration of both unfettered and managed outbreaks-the latter in the context of interventions such as case detection, patient isolation, vaccination and treatment. The reliability of this tool depends on the validity of key assumptions that include homogeneity of individuals and spatio-temporal homogeneity. Although the SEIR compartmental framework can easily be extended to include demographic (e.g. age) and additional disease (e.g. healthcare workers) classes, dependence of transmission rates on time, and metapopulation structure, fitting such extended models is hampered by both a proliferation of free parameters and insufficient or inappropriate data. This raises the qu

SUBMITTER: Getz WM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6553598 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature