A new mechanistic model of weather-dependent Septoria tritici blotch disease risk.

ABSTRACT: We present a new mechanistic model for predicting Septoria tritici blotch (STB) disease, parameterized with experimentally derived data for temperature- and wetness-dependent germination, growth and death of the causal agent, Zymoseptoria tritici. The output of this model (A) was compared with observed disease data for UK wheat over the period 2002-2016. In addition, we compared the output of a second model (B), in which experimentally derived parameters were replaced by a modified version of a published Z. tritici thermal performance equation, with the same observed disease data. Neither model predicted observed annual disease, but model A was able to differentiate UK regions with differing average disease risks over the entire period. The greatest limitations of both models are: broad sp

SUBMITTER: Chaloner TM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6553599 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature