Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization considers an Ebola outbreak to have ended once 42 days have passed since the last possible exposure to a confirmed case. Benefits of a quick end-of-outbreak declaration, such as reductions in trade/travel restrictions, must be balanced against the chance of flare-ups from undetected residual cases. We show how epidemiological modelling can be used to estimate the surveillance level required for decision-makers to be confident that an outbreak is over. Results from a simple model characterizing an Ebola outbreak suggest that a surveillance sensitivity (i.e. case reporting percentage) of 79% is necessary for 95% confidence that an outbreak is over after 42 days without symptomatic cases. With weaker surveillance, unrecognized transmission may still occur: if the

SUBMITTER: Thompson RN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6558559 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature