A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens.

ABSTRACT: International travel offers an extensive network for new and recurring human-mediated introductions of exotic infectious pathogens and biota, freeing geographical constraints. We present a predictive census-travel model that integrates international travel with endpoint census data and epidemiological characteristics to predict points of introduction. Population demographics, inbound and outbound travel patterns, and quantification of source strength by country are combined to estimate and rank risk of introduction at user-scalable land parcel areas (e.g. state, county, zip code, census tract, gridded landscapes (1 mi², 5 km², etc.)). This risk ranking by parcel can be used to develop pathogen surveillance programmes, and has been incorporated in multiple US state/fed

SUBMITTER: Gottwald T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6558561 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature