Applying optimal control theory to complex epidemiological models to inform real-world disease management.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models provide a rational basis to inform how, where and when to control disease. Assuming an accurate spatially explicit simulation model can be fitted to spread data, it is straightforward to use it to test the performance of a range of management strategies. However, the typical complexity of simulation models and the vast set of possible controls mean that only a small subset of all possible strategies can ever be tested. An alternative approach-optimal control theory-allows the best control to be identified unambiguously. However, the complexity of the underpinning mathematics means that disease models used to identify this optimum must be very simple. We highlight two frameworks for bridging the gap between detailed epidemic simulations and optimal control theory: open-l

SUBMITTER: Bussell EH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6558566 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature