Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century.

ABSTRACT: Global warming has advanced the timing of biological events, potentially leading to disruption across trophic levels. The potential importance of phenological change as a driver of population trends has been suggested. To fully understand the possible impacts, there is a need to quantify the scale of these changes spatially and according to habitat type. We studied the relationship between phenological trends, space and habitat type between 1965 and 2012 using an extensive UK dataset comprising 269 aphid, bird, butterfly and moth species. We modelled phenologies using generalized additive mixed models that included covariates for geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude), temporal (year, season) and habitat terms (woodland, scrub, grassland). Model selection showed that a baseline model

SUBMITTER: Bell JR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6563090 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature