The complex transmission seasonality of hand, foot, and mouth disease and its driving factors.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries. However, it has been neglected in the study of pathogens in China.

Methods

To understand the transmission dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), we examined the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD in three provinces, Henan, Anhui and Chongqing, in China, using a dynamical stochastic SIR model. We investigated potential driving factors, including school terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, meteorological factors and population flux for their effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality using multiple regression models.

Results

The transmission rate of HFMD had complex season

SUBMITTER: Zhao J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6567494 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature