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Development of model to predict end-stage renal disease after coronary artery bypass grafting: The ACHE score.

ABSTRACT: Because end-stage renal disease (ESRD) increases the risks of morbidity and mortality, early detection and prevention of ESRD is a critical issue in clinical practice. However, no ESRD-prediction models have been developed or validated in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study, recruited between January 2004 and December 2015. A cohort of 3089 patients undergoing CABG in two tertiary referral centers was analyzed to derive a risk-prediction model. The model was developed using Cox proportional hazard analyses, and its performance was assessed using C-statistics. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 279 patients.During the median follow-up of 6 years (maximum 13 years), ESRD occurred in 60 patients (2.0%). Through stepwise selection multivariate analyses, the following three variables were finally included in the ESRD-prediction model: postoperative Acute kidney injury, underlying Chronic kidney disease, and the number of antiHypertensive drugs (ACHE score). This model showed good performance in predicting ESRD with the following C-statistics: 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.94) in the development cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.60-1.00) in the external validation cohort.The present ESRD-prediction model may be applicable to patients undergoing CABG, with the advantage of simplicity and preciseness.

SUBMITTER: Lee Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6571385 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of model to predict end-stage renal disease after coronary artery bypass grafting: The ACHE score.

Lee Yeonhee Y Park Jiwon J Jang Myoung-Jin MJ Moon Hong Ran HR Kim Dong Ki DK Oh Kook-Hwan KH Joo Kwon Wook KW Lim Chun Soo CS Kim Yon Su YS Na Ki Young KY Han Seung Seok SS

Medicine 20190501 21

Because end-stage renal disease (ESRD) increases the risks of morbidity and mortality, early detection and prevention of ESRD is a critical issue in clinical practice. However, no ESRD-prediction models have been developed or validated in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study, recruited between January 2004 and December 2015. A cohort of 3089 patients undergoing CABG in two tertiary referral centers was analyzed to derive a ri ...[more]

PMID: 31124973

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Project description:Background Over 180 000 coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedures are performed annually, accounting for $7 to $10 billion in episode expenditures. Assessing tradeoffs between spending and quality contributing to value during 90-day episodes has not been conducted but is essential for success in bundled reimbursement models. We, therefore, identified determinants of variability in hospital 90-day episode value for CABG. Methods Medicare and private payor admissions for isolated CABG from 2014 to 2016 were retrospectively linked to clinical registry data for 33 nonfederal hospitals in Michigan. Hospital composite risk-adjusted complication rates (≥1 National Quality Forum-endorsed, Society of Thoracic Surgeons measure: deep sternal wound infection, renal failure, prolonged ventilation >24 hours, stroke, re-exploration, and operative mortality) and 90-day risk-adjusted, price-standardized episode payments were used to categorize hospitals by value by defining the intersection between complications and spending. Results Among 2573 total patients, those at low- versus high-value hospitals had a higher percentage of prolonged length of stay >14 days (9.3% versus 2.4%, P=0.006), prolonged ventilation (17.6% versus 4.8%, P<0.001), and operative mortality (4.8% versus 0.6%, P=0.001). Mean total episode payments were $51 509 at low-compared with $45 526 at high-value hospitals (P<0.001), driven by higher readmission ($3675 versus $2177, P=0.005), professional ($7462 versus $6090, P<0.001), postacute care ($7315 versus $5947, P=0.031), and index hospitalization payments ($33 474 versus $30 800, P<0.001). Among patients not experiencing a complication or 30-day readmission (1923/2573, 74.7%), low-value hospitals had higher inpatient evaluation and management payments ($1405 versus $752, P<0.001) and higher utilization of inpatient rehabilitation (7% versus 2%, P<0.001), but lower utilization of home health (66% versus 73%, P=0.016) and emergency department services (13% versus 17%, P=0.034). Conclusions To succeed in emerging bundled reimbursement programs for CABG, hospitals and physicians should identify strategies to minimize complications while optimizing inpatient evaluation and management spending and use of inpatient rehabilitation, home health, and emergency department services.

Dataset Information

Development of model to predict end-stage renal disease after coronary artery bypass grafting: The ACHE score.

Publications

Development of model to predict end-stage renal disease after coronary artery bypass grafting: The ACHE score.

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