A critical examination of a newly proposed interhemispheric teleconnection to Southwestern US winter precipitation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gibson PB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6584695 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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A critical examination of a newly proposed interhemispheric teleconnection to Southwestern US winter precipitation.
Gibson Peter B PB Waliser Duane E DE DeFlorio Michael J MJ
Nature communications 20190619 1
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Project description: Not available
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Project description:Reliable prediction of seasonal precipitation in the southwestern US (SWUS) remains a challenge with significant implications for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region. Winter precipitation in the SWUS has been linked to several climate modes, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with limited predictive ability. Here we report evidence that late-summer sea surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies close to New Zealand exhibit higher correlation with SWUS winter precipitation than ENSO, enhancing the potential for earlier and more accurate prediction. The teleconnection depends on a western Pacific ocean-atmosphere pathway, whereby sea surface temperature anomalies propagate from the southern to the northern hemisphere during boreal summer. Analysis also shows an amplification of this new teleconnection over the past four decades. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.
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Project description:Tropical South American hydroclimate sustains the world's highest biodiversity and hundreds of millions of people. Whitin this region, Amazonia and northeastern Brazil have attracted much attention due to their high biological and social vulnerabilities to climate change (i.e. considered climate change hotspots). Still, their future response to climate change remains uncertain. On precession timescale, it has been suggested that periods of decreased western Amazonian precipitation were accompanied by increased northeastern Brazilian precipitation and vice-versa, setting an east-west tropical South American precipitation dipole. However, the very existence of this precession-driven precipitation dipole remains unsettled given the scarcity of long and appropriate northeastern Brazilian records. Here we show that the precession-driven South American precipitation dipole has persisted over the last 113 ka as revealed by a northern northeastern Brazilian precipitation record obtained from quartz thermoluminescence sensitivity measured in marine sediment cores. Precession-induced austral summer insolation changes drove the precipitation dipole through the interhemispheric temperature gradient control over the regional Walker circulation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone seasonal migration range. Since modern global warming affects the interhemispheric temperature gradient, our study provides insights about possible future tropical South American hydroclimate responses.
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Project description:BackgroundLow-density lipoprotein cholesterol is an important marker highly associated with cardiovascular disease. Since the direct measurement of it is inefficient in terms of cost and time, it is common to estimate through the Friedewald equation developed about 50 years ago. However, various limitations exist since the Friedewald equation was not designed for Koreans. This study proposes a new low-density lipoprotein cholesterol estimation equation for South Koreans using nationally approved statistical data.MethodsThis study used data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2009 to 2019. The 18,837 subjects were used to develop the equation for estimating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The subjects included individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels directly measured among those with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and total cholesterol measured. We compared twelve equations developed in the previous studies and the newly proposed equation (model 1) developed in this study with the actual low-density lipoprotein cholesterol value in various ways.ResultsThe low-density lipoprotein cholesterol value estimated using the estimation formula and the actual low-density lipoprotein cholesterol value were compared using the root mean squared error. When the triglyceride level was less than 400 mg/dL, the root mean squared of the model 1 was 7.96, the lowest compared to other equations, and the model 2 was 7.82. The degree of misclassification was checked according to the NECP ATP III 6 categories. As a result, the misclassification rate of the model 1 was the lowest at 18.9%, and Weighted Kappa was the highest at 0.919 (0.003), which means it significantly reduced the underestimation rate shown in other existing estimation equations. Root mean square error was also compared according to the change in triglycerides level. As the triglycerides level increased, the root mean square error showed an increasing trend in all equations, but it was confirmed that the model 1 was the lowest compared to other equations.ConclusionThe newly proposed low-density lipoprotein cholesterol estimation equation showed significantly improved performance compared to the 12 existing estimation equations. The use of representative samples and external verification is required for more sophisticated estimates in the future.
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