Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India.

ABSTRACT: Heat waves over India occur during the months of March-June. This study aims at the real-time monitoring and prediction of heat waves using a multi-model dynamical ensemble prediction system developed at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India. For this, a criterion has been proposed based on the observed daily gridded maximum temperature (Tmax) datasets, which can be used for real-time prediction as well. A heat wave day is identified when either (1) Tmax (a)≥ its climatological 95^th percentile (calculated from daily values during March-June and for 1981-2010), (b) >36 °C, and (c) its departure from normal is >3.5 °C, Or, (2) when the Tmax >44 °C. Three heat wave prone regions, namely, northwest, southeast and northwest-southeast regions are recognized and heat wave spe

SUBMITTER: Mandal R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6588722 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature