New ways of estimating excess mortality of chronic diseases from aggregated data: insights from the illness-death model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). The transition rates are the incidence rate, the remission rate and mortality rates from the 'Healthy' and 'Ill' states. In case of a chronic disease, we now demonstrate that the PDE can be used to estimate the excess mortality from age-specific prevalence and incidence data. For the prevalence and incidence, aggregated data are sufficient - no individual subject data are needed, which allows application of the methods in contexts of strong data protection or where data from individual subjects is not accessible.

Methods

After developing novel estimators for the excess mortality derived f

SUBMITTER: Brinks R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6599235 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature