Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods.

ABSTRACT: The increase of multidrug resistance and resistance to last-line antibiotics is a major global public health threat. Although surveillance programs provide useful current and historical information on the scale of the problem, the future emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance is uncertain, and quantifying this uncertainty is crucial for guiding decisions about investment in antibiotics and resistance control strategies. Mathematical and statistical models capable of projecting future rates are challenged by the paucity of data and the complexity of the emergence and spread of resistance, but experts have relevant knowledge. We use the Classical Model of structured expert judgment to elicit projections with uncertainty bounds of resistance rates through 2026 for nine pathogen-antibio

SUBMITTER: Colson AR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6611586 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature