Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers.

ABSTRACT: Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focus

SUBMITTER: Gershunov A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6617450 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature