Evidencing How Experience and Problem Format Affect Probabilistic Reasoning Through Interaction Analysis.

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the role that lived experience plays in the human capacity to reason about uncertainty. Previous research shows that people are more likely to provide accurate responses in Bayesian tasks when the data are presented in natural frequencies, the problem in question describes a familiar event, and the values of the data are in line with beliefs. Precisely why these factors are important remains open to debate. We elucidate the issue in two ways. Firstly, we hypothesize that in a task that requires people to reason about conditional probabilities, they are more likely to respond accurately when the values of the problem reflect their own lived experience, than when they reflect the experience of the average participant. Secondly, to gain further understanding of the

SUBMITTER: Reani M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6620894 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature