Simple framework for real-time forecast in a data-limited situation: the Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in Brazil from 2015 to 2016 as an example.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2015-2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) caused serious epidemics in Brazil. The key epidemiological parameters and spatial heterogeneity of ZIKV epidemics in different states in Brazil remain unclear. Early prediction of the final epidemic (or outbreak) size for ZIKV outbreaks is crucial for public health decision-making and mitigation planning. We investigated the spatial heterogeneity in the epidemiological features of ZIKV across eight different Brazilian states by using simple non-linear growth models.

Results

We fitted three different models to the weekly reported ZIKV cases in eight different states and obtained an R² larger than 0.995. The estimated average values of basic reproduction numbers from different states varied from 2.07 to 3.41, with a mean o

SUBMITTER: Zhao S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6624944 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature