Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992.

ABSTRACT: To control hepatitis A spread by vaccination, accurate estimation of transmissibility is vital. Regan et al. (2016) proposed a model of hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission and used least squares to calibrate model to the 1991/1992 HAV outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sydney, Australia. Based on the estimate of R0, they obtained the critical immunity of 70% and showed that when the proportion immune <70%, there is a definite chance for outbreaks to take place. The immunity level from previous surveys ranges from 32% to 64% after 1996 while no outbreaks in Australian MSMs have been reported since 1996. Further noticing the ill-distributed parameters, we argue that their estimate of R0 is not accurate. In this study, we revisited their model by Bayesian inference, which has

SUBMITTER: Zhang XS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6625190 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature