Development and validation of 15-month mortality prediction models: a retrospective observational comparison of machine-learning techniques in a national sample of Medicare recipients.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The objective is to develop and validate a predictive model for 15-month mortality using a random sample of community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries.

Data source

The Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Limited Data Set files containing the five per cent samples for 2014 and 2015.

Participants

The data analysed contains de-identified administrative claims information at the beneficiary level, including diagnoses, procedures and demographics for 2.7 million beneficiaries.

Setting

US national sample of Medicare beneficiaries.

Study design

Eleven different models were used to predict 15-month mortality risk: logistic regression (using both stepwise and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) selection of variables as well as

SUBMITTER: Berg GD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6661632 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature