An evaluation and update of methods for estimating the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination in the United States.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

To evaluate the public health benefit of yearly influenza vaccinations, CDC estimates the number of influenza cases and hospitalizations averted by vaccine. Available input data on cases and vaccinations is aggregated by month and the estimation model is intentionally simple, raising concerns about the accuracy of estimates.

Methods

We created a synthetic dataset with daily counts of influenza cases and vaccinations, calculated "true" averted cases using a reference model applied to the daily data, aggregated the data by month to simulate data that would actually be available, and evaluated the month-level data with seven test methods (including the current method). Methods with averted case estimates closest to the reference model were considered most accurate.

SUBMITTER: Tokars JI 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6666399 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature