Consistent multi-decadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.

ABSTRACT: Multi-decadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive paleoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multi-decadal temperature fluctuations, which are coherent with one another and with fully forced CMIP5 millennial model simulations across the Common Era. The most significant attribution of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multi-decadal timescales is to volcan

SUBMITTER: PAGES 2k Consortium 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6675609 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature