Flucast: A Real-Time Tool to Predict Severity of an Influenza Season.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Influenza causes serious illness requiring annual health system surge capacity, yet annual seasonal variation makes it difficult to forecast and plan for the severity of an upcoming season. Research shows that hospital and health system stakeholders indicate a preference for forecasting tools that are easy to use and understand to assist with surge capacity planning for influenza.

Objective

This study aimed to develop a simple risk prediction tool, Flucast, to predict the severity of an emerging influenza season.

Methods

Study data were obtained from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System and Australian Influenza Surveillance Reports from the Department of Health, Australia. We tested Flucast using retrospective seasonal data for 11 Australian

SUBMITTER: Moa A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6683655 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature