Modelling the combined impact of interventions in averting deaths during a synthetic-opioid overdose epidemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

The province of British Columbia (BC) Canada has experienced a rapid increase in illicit drug overdoses and deaths during the last 4 years, with a provincial emergency declared in April 2016. These deaths have been driven primarily by the introduction of synthetic opioids into the illicit opioid supply. This study aimed to measure the combined impact of large-scale opioid overdose interventions implemented in BC between April 2016 and December 2017 on the number of deaths averted.

Design

We expanded on the mathematical modelling methodology of our previous study to construct a Bayesian hierarchical latent Markov process model to estimate monthly overdose and overdose-death risk, along with the impact of interventions.

Setting and cases

Overdose eve

SUBMITTER: Irvine MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6684858 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature