Age-structure and transient dynamics in epidemiological systems.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models of childhood diseases date back to the early twentieth century. In several cases, models that make the simplifying assumption of homogeneous time-dependent transmission rates give good agreement with data in the absence of secular trends in population demography or transmission. The prime example is afforded by the dynamics of measles in industrialized countries in the pre-vaccine era. Accurate description of the transient dynamics following the introduction of routine vaccination has proved more challenging, however. This is true even in the case of measles which has a well-understood natural history and an effective vaccine that confers long-lasting protection against infection. Here, to shed light on the causes of this problem, we demonstrate that, while the dynamics

SUBMITTER: Magpantay FMG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6685011 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature