Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the Chesapeake Bay: Operational In Situ Prediction and Forecast Models Can Benefit from Inclusion of Lagged Water Quality Measurements.

ABSTRACT: Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a leading cause of seafood-borne gastroenteritis. Given its natural presence in brackish waters, there is a need to develop operational forecast models that can sufficiently predict the bacterium's spatial and temporal variation. This work attempted to develop V. parahaemolyticus prediction models using frequently measured time-indexed and -lagged water quality measures. Models were built using a large data set (n = 1,043) of surface water samples from 2007 to 2010 previously analyzed for V. parahaemolyticus in the Chesapeake Bay. Water quality variables were classified as time indexed, 1-month lag, and 2-month lag. Tobit regression models were used to account for V. parahaemolyticus measures below the limit of quantification an

SUBMITTER: Davis BJK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6696964 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature