Forecasted Size of Measles Outbreaks Associated With Vaccination Exemptions for Schoolchildren.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Vaccine exemptions, which allow unvaccinated children to attend school, have increased by a factor of 28 since 2003 in Texas. Geographic clustering of unvaccinated children facilitates the spread of measles introductions, but the potential size of outbreaks is unclear.

Objective

To forecast the range of measles outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and future reduced school vaccination rates.

Design, setting, and participants

An agent-based decision analytical model using a synthetic population of Texas, derived from the 2010 US Census, was used to simulate measles transmission in the Texas population. Real schools were represented in the simulations, and the 2018 vaccination rate of each real school was applied to a simulated hypothetic

SUBMITTER: Sinclair DR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6707017 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature