A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates.

ABSTRACT: The 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is the primary metric used to compare the climate impacts of emissions of different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The GWP relies on radiative forcing rather than damages, assumes constant future concentrations, and integrates over a timescale of 100 years without discounting; these choices lead to a metric that is transparent and simple to calculate, but have also been criticized. In this paper, we take a quantitative approach to evaluating the choice of time horizon, accounting for many of these complicating factors. By calculating an equivalent GWP timescale based on discounted damages resulting from CH₄ and CO₂ pulses, we show that a 100-year timescale is consistent with a discount rate of 3.3% (interquartile range of 2.7% to

SUBMITTER: Sarofim MC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6711200 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature