Emergence of Anthropogenic Signals in the Ocean Carbon Cycle.

ABSTRACT: Attribution of anthropogenically-forced trends in the climate system requires understanding when and how such signals will emerge from natural variability. We apply time-of-emergence diagnostics to a Large Ensemble of an Earth System Model, providing both a conceptual framework for interpreting the detectability of anthropogenic impacts in the ocean carbon cycle and observational sampling strategies required to achieve detection. We find emergence timescales ranging from under a decade to over a century, a consequence of the time-lag between chemical and radiative impacts of rising atmospheric CO₂ on the ocean. Processes sensitive to carbonate-chemical changes emerge rapidly, such as impacts of acidification on the calcium-carbonate pump (10 years for the globally-integrated sig

SUBMITTER: Schlunegger S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6750021 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature