Forecasting the impact of population ageing on tuberculosis incidence.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) disease reactivates from distant latent infection or recent (re)infection. Progression risks increase with age. Across the World Health Organisation Western Pacific region, many populations are ageing and have the highest per capita TB incidence rates in older age groups. However, methods for analysing age-specific TB incidence and forecasting epidemic trends while accounting for demographic change remain limited.

Methods

We applied the Lee-Carter models, which were originally developed for mortality modelling, to model the temporal trends in age-specific TB incidence data from 2005 to 2018 in Taiwan. Females and males were modelled separately. We combined our demographic forecasts, and age-specific TB incidence forecasts to project TB incidence

SUBMITTER: Ku CC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6759178 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature