Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Trnka M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6760931 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas.
Trnka Miroslav M Feng Song S Semenov Mikhail A MA Olesen Jørgen E JE Kersebaum Kurt Christian KC Rötter Reimund P RP Semerádová Daniela D Klem Karel K Huang Wei W Ruiz-Ramos Margarita M Hlavinka Petr P Meitner Jan J Balek Jan J Havlík Petr P Büntgen Ulf U
Science advances 20190925 9
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration ...[more]
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