De-climatizing food security: Lessons from climate change micro-simulations in Peru.

ABSTRACT: This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with y

SUBMITTER: Anriquez G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6764669 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature