Dataset Information

Natural history of liver-related disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: An analysis using a Markov chain model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) remains incompletely characterized. We investigated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with chronic HCV infection who have not received antiviral therapy.

Methods

A total of 2304 patients with chronic HCV who were not received interferon-based therapy were included.

Results

In the assessment of 1-year disease state of liver transition probabilities, progression to chronic hepatitis occurred in 12% to 14% of patients across all age groups in male asymptomatic carriers. In male patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (7.6%) and ≥70 age groups (9.6%). In addition, in male patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in approximately 5% of patients over the age of 40. In female asymptomatic carriers, progression to chronic hepatitis was observed in 6% to 14% of patients across all age groups. In female patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (8.7%) and ≥70 (7.4%) age groups. In addition, in female patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in 0.9% to 3.3% of patients over the age of 50. Under assumptions of either chronic hepatitis or asymptomatic carrier state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the following 40 years, the probability of HCC gradually increased with age and was higher in male patients.

Conclusions

There is a risk of cirrhosis or HCC development in HCV patients with not only chronic hepatitis but the asymptomatic carrier state as well.

SUBMITTER: Tada T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6771942 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Natural history of liver-related disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: An analysis using a Markov chain model.

Tada Toshifumi T Toyoda Hidenori H Yasuda Satoshi S Miyake Nozomi N Kumada Takashi T Kurisu Akemi A Ohisa Masayuki M Akita Tomoyuki T Tanaka Junko J

Journal of medical virology 20190716 10

<h4>Background</h4>Long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) remains incompletely characterized. We investigated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with chronic HCV infection who have not received antiviral therapy.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 2304 patients with chronic HCV who were not received interferon-based therapy were included.<h4>Results</h4>In the assessment of 1-year disease state of liver transition probabilities, progression to chronic h ...[more]

PMID: 31254403

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Project description:BackgroundInfection is common in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which may worsen the clinical condition and prognosis. However, the characteristics of infection and its influence on prognosis in hepatitis B virus related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) as defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) have not been clarified. We aimed to investigate the characteristics of infection and its influence on mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF defined by EASL in China.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with HBV-ACLF defined by EASL in a single center from January 2015 to December 2017. These patients were divided into two groups with and without infection. The incidence, sites of infection, isolated strains, and risk factors associated with mortality were evaluated.ResultsA total of 289 patients were included, among them 185 (64.0%) were diagnosed with an infection. The most common type of infection was pneumonia (55.7%), followed by spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (47.6%) and others. The gram-negative bacteria were the most frequent (58.3%). Patients with one, two, and three or more infection sites had a gradually increasing incidence of sepsis (P < 0.01), septic shock (P < 0.001), and ACLF-3 (P < 0.05). Also, patients with infection isolated one, two, and three or more strains showed a growing incidence of sepsis (P < 0.01) and septic shock (P < 0.001). Patients with infection showed a significantly higher 28-day mortality than those without (P < 0.01), especially in patients with ACLF-3. Infection was identified as an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in all HBV-ACLF patients. Pneumonia and sepsis were identified as independent predictors of 28-day mortality for patients with infection.ConclusionsInfection is associated with severe clinical course and high mortality in HBV-ACLF defined by EASL. The increased number of infection sites or isolated strains was associated with the occurrence of sepsis and septic shock. Pneumonia and sepsis were independent predictors for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients with infection.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a risk factor for liver diseases such as fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. HCV genetic heterogeneity was hypothesized to be associated with severity of liver disease. However, no reliable viral markers predicting disease severity have been identified. Here, we report the utility of sequences from 3 HCV 1b genomic regions, Core, NS3 and NS5b, to identify viral genetic markers associated with fast and slow rate of fibrosis progression (RFP) among patients with and without liver transplantation (n = 42). METHODS: A correlation-based feature selection (CFS) method was used to detect and identify RFP-relevant viral markers. Machine-learning techniques, linear projection (LP) and Bayesian Networks (BN), were used to assess and identify associations between the HCV sequences and RFP. RESULTS: Both clustering of HCV sequences in LP graphs using physicochemical properties of nucleotides and BN analysis using polymorphic sites showed similarities among HCV variants sampled from patients with a similar RFP, while distinct HCV genetic properties were found associated with fast or slow RFP. Several RFP-relevant HCV sites were identified. Computational models parameterized using the identified sites accurately associated HCV strains with RFP in 70/30 split cross-validation (90-95% accuracy) and in validation tests (85-90% accuracy). Validation tests of the models constructed for patients with or without liver transplantation suggest that the RFP-relevant genetic markers identified in the HCV Core, NS3 and NS5b genomic regions may be useful for the prediction of RFP regardless of transplant status of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The apparent strong genetic association to RFP suggests that HCV genetic heterogeneity has a quantifiable effect on severity of liver disease, thus presenting opportunity for developing genetic assays for measuring virulence of HCV strains in clinical and public health settings.

Dataset Information

Natural history of liver-related disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: An analysis using a Markov chain model.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Natural history of liver-related disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: An analysis using a Markov chain model.

Similar Datasets

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