Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias.

ABSTRACT: Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to retrospectively exaggerate one's foresight knowledge about the outcome of an event. Cognitive processes influenced by newly obtained outcome information are used to explain the HB phenomenon, but the neural correlates remain unknown. This study investigated HB in the context of election results using a memory design and functional magnetic resonance imaging for the first time. Participants were asked to predict and recall the percentage of votes obtained by (pairs of) candidates before and after an election. The results revealed that 88% of participants showed HB by recalling that their predictions were closer to the actual outcomes than they really were; and participants had HB for 38% of the events. The HB effect was associated with activation in th

SUBMITTER: Chen YH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6786518 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature