Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959-2016.

ABSTRACT: This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959-2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be

SUBMITTER: Acosta E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6797638 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature