Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology.

Methods

An age-structured TB-DM dynamical mathematical model was developed and analyzed to assess the DM-on-TB impact. The model was calibrated using a literature review and meta-analyses. The DM-on-TB impact was analyzed using population attributable fraction metrics. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by accommodating less conservative effect sizes for the TB-DM interactions, by factoring the age-dependence of the TB-DM association, and by assuming different TB disease incidence rate trajectories.

Results

In 1990, 11.4% (95% uncertainty interval (

SUBMITTER: Awad SF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6815875 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature