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Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal.

ABSTRACT: Invasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.

SUBMITTER: Pepper N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6838098 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal.

Pepper Nick N Gerardo-Giorda Luca L Montomoli Francesco F

Scientific reports 20191107 1

Invasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be cons ...[more]

PMID: 31700073

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Project description:Alien species often flourish and become invasive in urban ecosystems. How and why invaders succeed in urban systems is an important, yet poorly understood, question. We investigate whether the success of urban invaders is related to changes in species traits that enhance invasive potential. We also explore whether a trophic mechanism helps explain the success of invaders in urban systems. We use the guppy Poecilia reticulata, a globally distributed alien species that has invaded both urban and non-urban systems, as our model. We first characterize the effect of urbanization on streams where guppies are present. We measure guppy invasion success using their population density and size-frequency. Then we assess how traits that are related to the potential of guppies to invade (life history and condition) respond to urbanization. Next, we explore how urbanization affects the availability of food for guppies and their diets. We also test if the presence of other fish species grants biological resistance to invasion by dampening guppy invasive potential. We find that urban streams have high concentrations of ammonium and faecal coliforms, indicating contamination from sewage. On average, guppy populations from urban streams have 26× higher density and larger body sizes than non-urban populations. Urban guppies are in better condition and have on average five more offspring than non-urban guppies. Urbanization increases the availability and consumption of highly nutritious food (chironomid larvae) by guppies. We find a positive relationship between the consumption of chironomids and both fecundity and condition. The presence of other fish species in urban streams often has a negative but small effect on guppy traits and density. Our data suggest a relaxation of trade-offs that shape life-history traits which is related to increased food resources in urban streams. These indicate that urbanization enhances the invasive potential of guppies through a trophic mechanism that simultaneously increases reproduction and somatic investment. Such mechanism is likely widespread because chironomids are often highly abundant in urban systems. Thus, not only guppies but also other invasive species can take advantage of such a resource to invest in traits that enhance invasion success.

Project description:IntroductionPhylogenetic relatedness is one of the important factors in the community assembly process. Here, we aimed to understand the large-scale phylogenetic relationship between alien plant species at different stages of the invasion process and how these relationships change in response to the environmental filtering process at multiple spatial scales and different phylogenetic extents.MethodsWe identified the alien species in three invasion stages, namely invasive, naturalized, and introduced, in China. The occurrence records of the species were used to quantify two abundance-based phylogenetic metrics [the net relatedness index (NRI) and the nearest taxon index (NTI)] from a highly resolved phylogenetic tree. The metrics were compared between the three categories of alien species. Generalized linear models were used to test the effect of climate on the phylogenetic pattern. All analyses were conducted at four spatial scales and for three major angiosperm families.ResultsWe observed significantly higher NRI and NTI values at finer spatial scales, indicating the formation of more clustered assemblages of phylogenetically closely related species in response to the environmental filtering process. Positive NTI values for the invasive and naturalized aliens suggested that the presence of a close relative in the community may help the successful naturalization and invasion of the introduced alien species. In the two-dimensional phylogenetic space, the invasive species communities significantly differed from the naturalized and introduced species, indicating that established alien species need to be phylogenetically different to become invasive. Positive phylogenetic measures for the invasive aliens across the spatial scales suggested that the presence of invasive aliens could facilitate the establishment of other invasive species. Phylogenetic relatedness was more influenced by temperature than precipitation, especially at a finer spatial scale. With decreased temperature, the invasive species showed a more clustered assemblage, indicating conservatism of their phylogenetic niche. The phylogenetic pattern was different at the family level, although there was a consistent tendency across families to form more clustered assemblages.DiscussionOverall, our study showed that the community assemblage became more clustered with the progression of the invasion process. The phylogenetic measures varied at spatial and taxonomic scales, thereby highlighting the importance of assessing phylogenetic patterns at different gradients of the community assembly process.

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Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal.

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Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal.

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