Prediction of shock arrival times from CME and flare data.

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the Shock ARrival Model (SARM) for predicting shock arrival times for distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU by using coronal mass ejections (CME) and flare data. SARM is an aerodynamic drag model described by a differential equation that has been calibrated with a dataset of 120 shocks observed from 1997 to 2010 by minimizing the mean absolute error (MAE), normalized to 1 AU. SARM should be used with CME data (radial, earthward or plane-of-sky speeds), and flare data (peak flux, duration, and location). In the case of 1 AU, the MAE and the median of absolute errors were 7.0 h and 5.0 h respectively, using the available CME/flare data. The best results for 1 AU (an MAE of 5.8 h) were obtained using both CME data, either radial or cone-model-estimated speeds, and flare data. F

SUBMITTER: Nunez M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6839697 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature