Tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment under uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: In 2017, 1.6 million people worldwide died from tuberculosis (TB). A new TB diagnostic test-Xpert MTB/RIF from Cepheid-was endorsed by the World Health Organization in 2010. Trials demonstrated that Xpert is faster and has greater sensitivity and specificity than smear microscopy-the most common sputum-based diagnostic test. However, subsequent trials found no impact of introducing Xpert on morbidity and mortality. We present a decision-theoretic model of how a clinician might decide whether to order Xpert or other tests for TB, and whether to treat a patient, with or without test results. Our first result characterizes the conditions under which it is optimal to perform empirical treatment; that is, treatment without diagnostic testing. We then examine the implications for decision making

SUBMITTER: Cassidy R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6859331 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature