How predictable is extinction? Forecasting species survival at million-year timescales.

ABSTRACT: A tenet of conservation palaeobiology is that knowledge of past extinction patterns can help us to better predict future extinctions. Although the future is unobservable, we can test the strength of this proposition by asking how well models conditioned on past observations would have predicted subsequent extinction events at different points in the geological past. To answer this question, we analyse the well-sampled fossil record of Cenozoic planktonic microfossil taxa (Foramanifera, Radiolaria, diatoms and calcareous nanoplankton). We examine how extinction probability varies over time as a function of species age, time of observation, current geographical range, change in geographical range, climate state and change in climate state. Our models have a 70-80% probability of correctly fo

SUBMITTER: Smits P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6863491 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature