Endemic foot and mouth disease: pastoral in-herd disease dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa.

ABSTRACT: Foot and mouth disease (FMD) burden disproportionally affects Africa where it is considered endemic. Smallholder livestock keepers experience significant losses due to disease, but the dynamics and mechanisms underlying persistence at the herd-level and beyond remain poorly understood. We address this knowledge gap using stochastic, compartmental modelling to explore FMD virus (FMDV) persistence, outbreak dynamics and disease burden in individual cattle herds within an endemic setting. Our analysis suggests repeated introduction of virus from outside the herd is required for long-term viral persistence, irrespective of carrier presence. Risk of new disease exposures resulting in significant secondary outbreaks is reduced by the presence of immune individuals giving rise to a period of redu

SUBMITTER: McLachlan I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6874544 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature