Spatiotemporal analysis of historical records (2001-2012) on dengue fever in Vietnam and development of a statistical model for forecasting risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Dengue fever is the most widespread infectious disease of humans transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It is the leading cause of hospitalization and death in children in the Southeast Asia and western Pacific regions. We analyzed surveillance records from health centers in Vietnam collected between 2001-2012 to determine seasonal trends, develop risk maps and an incidence forecasting model. METHODS:The data were analyzed using a hierarchical spatial Bayesian model that approximates its posterior parameter distributions using the integrated Laplace approximation algorithm (INLA). Meteorological, altitude and land cover (LC) data were used as predictors. The data were grouped by province (n = 63) and month (n = 144) and divided into training (2001-2009) and validation (2010-2012) sets

SUBMITTER: Bett B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6881000 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature